We have a unique perspective on the Halton housing market as Realtors who work with both buyers and sellers. Some of our clients are buyers with nothing to sell, some are sellers with nothing to buy, and many are buying and selling at the same time. That mix gives us a front-row seat to how the Halton real estate market really feels on the ground.

What’s interesting – but not surprising – is that buyers are asking when prices will go down further and when they should get into the market. Sellers are asking when the prices will “recover”.

For buyers, it’s not surprising that it’s difficult to get into the market at these prices and so they want prices to come down further.

For sellers, it’s obvious that they want the most out of their homes as possible and still feel the connection to the paper-value from just a few years ago.

I’ve said this before, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen such a spread between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept. In the past, that number was generally tens of thousands (20, 30 or 40 thousand dollars), and that gap was not insurmountable.

However, these past couple of years that gap has grown to hundreds of thousands. And that gap is insurmountable.

With November market data being released, we’ll dive into the numbers and see if things are getting better or worse for buyers and sellers.

Let’s start broad and look at Halton region as a whole. Unlike previous newsletters, I’m going to skip Months of Inventory (MOI) and Days on Market (DOM) as in this market with loads of de-listed properties, I don’t feel the data is useful or an accurate picture of what’s actually happening.

 

Halton Housing Market Forecast: What This Could Mean for 2026

	Value	Month Over Month	Year Over Year
New Listings	1,071	-37.0%	-10%
Sales	529	-26.7%	-15.8%
Active Inventory	2,528	-15.3%	+16.6%
Average Price	$1,195,281	+5%	-5.8%

 

Halton as a whole added 1,071 new listings in November. While it’s down 10% year over year and 37% month over month, it’s still elevated from the historical 700-900 new listings in Novembers past.

Sales, at about 50% of new listings, are down as well. This has been the story for the past few years. But if we attempt to remove the recent noise from the pandemic stimulus and look at pre-pandemic sales for the month of November, we’re not off by much – maybe 100 sales. Though there were a few Novembers with sales in the 500s, pre-pandemic.

Active inventor is what’s really putting downward pressure on average prices. With lots of options for buyers and soft to poor economic news, buyers who are in the market have lots of choices. And those who aren’t in the market feel they have lots of time to wait. And just like new listings, we saw active inventory come down a good amount, down 15% MoM.  But YoY we’re still quite high with 16% increase. I’d like to focus on YoY change as it removes the fact that seasonality plays into the data with many homes coming off the market ahead of the holidays.

Average prices saw a MoM bump. The fall market came late this year with both September and October having negative MoM price changes. Each fall we see an uptick from the summer. Usually that’s in October, so while it’s good some sellers got the price bump, it’s on the back of a YoY decline.

 

Burlington Housing Market: What November’s Numbers Say

	Value	Month Over Month	Year Over Year
New Listings	307	-38.0%	-7.5%
Sales	146	-33.9%	-27.7%
Active Inventory	755	-12.7%	+18.2%
Average Price	$1,050,765	+6.6%	-4.7%

 

The Burlington housing market saw 307 new listings in November, down almost 40% from October and about 7.5% lower than last year. So yes, fewer homes came to market, but not enough to create a “no inventory” feeling for buyers or push Burlington home prices higher year over year.

Sales came in at 146, just under half of the new listings—put another way, there were roughly twice as many new listings as sales in November. That’s a 33.9% drop month over month and a much steeper 27.7% drop year over year. The pullback in buyers outweighs the decline in new listings.

Active inventory is still elevated at 755 properties. It’s down 12.7% from October (seasonal slowdown plus de-listings) but still up 18.2% compared with last year. That extra choice continues to lean things in favour of buyers who are actively looking, as some sellers in the Burlington Ontario real estate market soften on price or terms to bridge that gap.

Average prices popped 6.6% month over month but are still down 4.7% year over year. For sellers, that MoM bump feels good, but it doesn’t erase the drop from the pandemic peak. For buyers, it’s a reminder that this isn’t a “fire sale” market—but there is room to negotiate on the right home.

Halton Hills Housing Market: What where are we heading from here?

	Value	Month Over Month	Year Over Year
New Listings	90	-47.0%	-12.9%
Sales	53	-15.9%	-19.7%
Active Inventory	228	-16.8%	+22.6%
Average Price	$1,011,368	-2.1%	-0.7%

 

Halton Hills is a smaller market, so the numbers can move around more, but the story is similar to the rest of Halton. There were 90 new listings in November, nearly cut in half month over month (-47%) and down 12.9% from last year. That’s a noticeable pull-back from the sellers’ side of the market. But again, with such a small sample size, numbers can be exaggerated. While the change is the largest in Halton, it’s supported by the regional averages.

Sales landed at 53, only a modest 15.9% drop from October but almost 20% lower than a year ago. So while fewer listings are coming on, demand has also stepped back, keeping that buyer-seller gap in place.

Active inventory sits at 228 homes—down 16.8% from October, but still up a sizeable 22.6% year over year. Buyers who are looking have more to pick from than they did last fall, and that extra selection and lack of buyers puts downward pressure on prices.

Average price in Halton Hills actually slipped 2.1% month over month and is basically flat year over year (-0.7%). That tells us pricing has been grinding sideways rather than sliding downward. For sellers, it means the buyers who are in the market see value in a home that’s priced properly. For buyers, especially move-up buyers, it’s one of the steadier markets in Halton right now.

 

Milton Housing Market: Is now a good time to buy a home in Milton?

	Value	Month Over Month	Year Over Year
New Listings	242	-31.4%	-16.8%
Sales	119	-30.4%	-19.6%
Active Inventory	477	-16.9%	+13.3%
Average Price	$1,108,077	+5.8%	-6.0%

 

The Milton housing market saw 242 new listings hit the market in November—down 31.4% from October and 16.8% from last year. For families watching Milton house prices, the good news is that fewer “For Sale” signs went up, but it’s not a shut-off of supply.

Sales came in at 119, down 30.4% month over month and 19.6% year over year. That almost mirrors the drop in new listings, which tells us activity has slowed on both sides rather than suddenly flipping to a stronger seller’s market.

Active inventory is still higher than last year at 477 homes, up 13.3% year over year even after a 16.9% pull-back from October. Milton buyers still have more choice than they did a year ago, and many feel they can take their time. At the same time, some sellers feel they can wait things out as well, and we’re seeing more homes temporarily de-list than actually sell, which adds to that feeling of a “stalled” market.

Average prices in Milton jumped 5.8% month over month—the second-highest increase in Halton—but are still down about 6% compared with last November. For sellers, that fall bounce is welcome, but it doesn’t put us back to pandemic-era numbers or even hint at a full recovery yet. For families trying to move up within Milton, this mix of softer year-over-year prices and more inventory is about as favourable as we’ve seen in a while—provided they’re comfortable with today’s interest rates.

The Milton Ontario real estate market has been one of the softer markets in Halton through 2025. A somewhat oversupplied townhouse segment has been a weak spot as investors sell off negative-cash-flow properties. On top of that, the huge number of homes built in the newest areas of south Milton has created a concentration of new listings, adding to the pressure on prices

 

Oakville Housing Market: What’s Happening With House Prices?

	Value	Month Over Month	Year Over Year
New Listings	432	-36.6%	-6.9%
Sales	211	-21%	-0.5%
Active Inventory	1,068	-15.9%	+16.2%
Average Price	$1,390,657	+3.2%	-11.2%

The Oakville housing market saw 432 new listings in November, down 36.6% from October and 6.9% from last year, right in line with the rest of Halton. Like other towns, it’s a noticeable seasonal slowdown rather than a full stop.

There were 211 sales—about half of the new listings, similar to the rest of Halton—down 21% month over month but essentially flat year over year (only -0.5%). So despite all the noise in the economy, Oakville buyers at the higher price points are still transacting at roughly last year’s pace. And while overall sales were down, zooming in on detached homes, sales were up nearly 5% YoY, suggesting that those in the higher price brackets aren’t feeling the same economic pressures as others.

Active inventory remains elevated at 1,068 homes. It’s down 15.9% from October (again, some de-listings ahead of the holidays), but still up 16.2% compared to last November. That extra inventory gives buyers more leverage, especially on properties that have been sitting.

Oakville home prices rose 3.2% on average month over month, but are still down 11.2% year over year. That double-digit YoY drop—the largest in Halton—really highlights the value gap between municipalities. In softer economic times, higher-end markets like the Oakville Ontario real estate market tend to see bigger percentage swings in Oakville house prices. Even with buyers returning in the detached segment, the downward pressure over the past year has left its mark.

 

Interest rate

 The prospect of further interest rate relief has dwindled significantly. After two consecutive rate cuts this fall, it was all but certain December 10^th wouldn’t offer a third, but that 2026 would, starting with January.

That script has flipped entirely. There is now only a 12% change of a January rate cut, and it doesn’t improve much in the follow months.

Why? Well, I’m not going to pretend that I have a crystal ball, but here are some interesting facts:

Employment numbers came out “strong” the last two months and the government and news channel spread the “good news”. But looking closer, found a different story, or at least a different version of the truth.

If we look at the most recent November Labour Force Survey (click to see for yourself), Canada gained 53,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate fell nearly half a percent.

Sounds terrific, almost worth writing home about.

However, when we ask “What kind of jobs?” we see 63,000 were part-time jobs. That means we lost 9,000 full-time jobs. If we gained 53,000 jobs and 63,000 were part-time, that means that 9,000 net full-time jobs were lost in order to end with a net gain of 53,000.

Not great, especially as we always get a boost in part-time jobs near Christmas, so this is nothing new.

Next, we say, ‘well unemployment fell by nearly 0.5%, that’s great!’ But unemployment is a calculation of the number of Unemployed persons divided by the Labour Force. For reference, Labour Force is the number of people who are actively searching for work. So excludes people under 15 years old, retirees, students, stay at home parents, and everyone not actively searching for employment.

While the number of unemployed people did drop, so did the labour force.

26,000 people left the labour force in November. Not because they got hired, but because they stopped looking for work. All the while our population continued to increase.  

 

That’s the real reason why the unemployment rate decreased. Not because we had a significant amount of employment – which is concerning to say the least.

And from an Ontario perspective, we took the brunt of it. 7,000 of the 9,000 net job losses were in Ontario. 20,000 of the 26,000 people who left the labour force were in Ontario.

So, where are interest rates going? Well, with these real numbers they should be going down, but it’s not uncommon for the Tiff Macklem at BoC to wait to see how interest rates moves trickle through the economy. We’ve seen it many times over the years where he makes a move and then plays “wait-‘n-see”.

So, we’ll have to wait-‘n-see ourselves. But one thing is certain, with numbers like these home prices still have more head-wind than tail-wind moving into 2026.