Milton Housing Market Update (February 2026)
If you’re watching the Milton housing market (and the wider Halton Region real estate market), February’s numbers tell a clear story: inventory is building into spring, sales are improving from a weak January, and pricing remains uneven across Halton. Below, I’ll break down the latest stats for Milton, the Burlington real estate market, and the Oakville housing market, then connect it to what we’re seeing in jobs and interest rates.
A national story most homeowners haven’t heard about
Recently, the Canadian Federal Government and the Musqueam First Nation signed a landmark agreement (“settlement” as it’s been called) between the Federal Governemnt and the Musqueam Frist Nation, recognizing Musqueam’s Aboriginal rights and title over a big chunk of Metro Vancouver and nearby areas in British Columbia. We’re being told this doesn’t mess with private property rights — but for how long? This could be a slipperly slope. Homeowners have been told they’ll keep full ownership, control, and the same tax setup as always. The settlement pushes reconciliation forward with plans for shared governance on public Crown lands, waterways, and fisheries, while protecting current leases, private properties, and city developments. This was a negotiated deal between the two sides behind closed doors—not a court order and not publically discussed or debate.
Looking ahead, this could set a precedent for handling other First Nations’ land claims across Canada. For now, any “risks” are mostly about changing how decisions are made on public or undeveloped land, like for new projects or resource management—think pipelines to the coast and other natural resource infrastructure development. For places outside BC, like Ontario, it could set a precedent for how First Nations’ land claims could be handled in the future, though it isn’t a rubber stamp either. This is uncharted territory.
That said, real concerns have surfaced regarding the entire negotiation process, suggesting possible government overreach and inadequate representation of the overwhelming majority of affected people. Roughly two million people are in the affected area, where the Musqueam Indian Band comprises of approximately 1500 members. Critics, from legal professionals to opposition politicians, say the talks went on for years with little to no openness or transparency and no real input from the almost two million non-Indigenous people in the area, local governments, or even other overlapping First Nations like the Squamish. This lack of public involvement gets called undemocratic, possibly ignoring taxpayer stakes and creating uncertainty for future business, residential real estate values and retirement plans despite promises that private land will remain untouched. Furthermore, the federal government’s withholding of full details until after the official signing raises accountability questions, including that one of the Musqueam Band members, Wade Grant, was a liberal MP involved in the settlement. This withholding of information might show a habit of prioritizing talks and agreements with Indigenous first nations over wider democratic checks, which could chip away at trust in how reconciliation ties into running the country.
This is a very interesting topic that hopefully will be debated openly from now on.
Job numbers: the fuel for the real estate market (and key driver for the milton housing market)
Halton Region real estate market update
Looking at the Labour Force Survey, the headline “only 25k jobs lost in January” doesn’t really capture what’s going on: every month there are ups and downs in job numbers but they’re almost always reported on a national level. Peeling back the layers a bit, January lost ~70k (-1.8%) part time jobs, while full-time rose ~45k (+0.3%). What makes that more telling is the context from late 2025: November’s “big gains”(+54k jobs) the govenement boasted about was explicitly “driven by part-time” positons (+63k), and in December, part-time fell ~42k while full-time rose ~50k. January shows employers trimming part-time positions even beyond what’s typical for the season. On top of that, ‘the unemployment rate falling to 6.5%’ looks “better” at a glance, but StatCan is very direct that it fell largely because fewer people were searching for work (participation fell to 65.0%, and the decline was concentrated in Ontario).That’s a softening signal, not a hiring boom with economic strength. You also see it in who’s doing the hiring in January: private-sector employment fell ~52k, while public sector rose (+13k) and self-employment (+14k) edged up—a sign that the government is getting bigger and people are starting their own business rather than relying on an employer. Zooming out to the 12-month view, Canada is still up ~134k (+0.6%), driven by full-time (+149k), but that growth is not evenly distributed—Alberta has been the standout (StatCan notes net gains of ~86k since January 2025 in Alberta), and the math matters here: if one province contributes a 64% chunk of net national gains, the national average can look “fine” even while many places are flat or suffering declines. For Ontario, the January read is clearly weaker: employment fell ~67k (-0.8%) in the month, manufacturing losses were concentrated in Ontario, and while Ontario’s unemployment rate fell to 7.3%, StatCan ties that improvement to fewer people looking for work (Ontario participation down to 64.4%
With that said, let’s look at what real estate did in February to see if there’s any connection between the overall economy, jobs and real estate prices in Halton (the Halton Region real estate market).
For buyers watching the market closely, understanding how the process works is just as important as timing. Our first-time home buyer guide for Ontario walks through the full process.
Value | Month-over Month | Year-Over-Year | |
New Listings | 1,180 | +2.4 % | -17.5 % |
Sales | 395 | +21.2 % | -7.5 % |
Active Listings | 2,111 | +11.8 % | -6.1 % |
Average Price | $1,140,331 | +0.3 % | -4.4 % |
Halton Region remains at near the top of the entire Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) most expensive locations, coming in second, just behind York Region. That’s both for Average Sale Price and Average List Price suggesting that demand is still strong as one of the top locations in Ontario.
New Listings in Halton were up slightly at 2.4% from January, a trend we often see each year, and down 17.5% from February 2025.
Sales were up 21.2% from a weak January but down 7.5% from a year ago. This lead to a Sale to New Listing Ratio of just 33.4%, we into the Buyer Market territory as far more homes came on the market than sold.
Active listings increased 11.8% from January as we edge close to the spring market but dropped 6.1%, helped more by terminations, expired and suspensions (de-listed properties) than actual sales.
This lead to overall prices sliding down 4.4% from a year ago and nearly unchanged from January.
Burlington real estate market
Value | Month-over Month | Year-Over-Year | |
New Listings | 330 | -1.2 % | -17.7 % |
Sales | 129 | +19.4 % | -9.2 % |
Active Listings | 636 | +12.0 % | +2.4% |
Average Price | $1,093,596 | +6.4 % | +4.0 % |
Burlington’s average price came in at $1,093,596, and pricing actually firmed up this month (+6.4% from January) and is up +4.0% year-over-year, which stands out given the softer sales backdrop.New Listings were 330, down slightly (-1.2% month-over-month) and down sharply (-17.7% year-over-year).
Sales improved from January (+19.4%) but are still down -9.2% from a year ago. That puts Burlington’s Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio at ~39.1% (129/330), which sits right on the edge of (and effectively in) Buyer Market territory, where supply is coming on faster than it’s being absorbed.Active Listings rose +12.0% from January and are also up +2.4% year-over-year, meaning buyers have a bit more choice than they did this time last year — even though prices moved higher this month.
Milton housing market (Milton real estate market)
Oakville housing market
|
Value |
Month-over Month |
Year-Over-Year |
|
|
New Listings |
252 |
+15.1 % |
-20.0 % |
|
Sales |
80 |
+2.6 % |
-14.9 % |
|
Active Listings |
396 |
+12.2 % |
-13.9 % |
|
Average Price |
$972,205 |
-8.9 % |
0.0 % |
Milton dropped to be the most affordable of the three, with an average price of $972,205. Prices were down -8.9% from January but are flat year-over-year (0.0%), reaffirming that last month’s spike was more of a short-term shift than a clear path forward. New Listings jumped to 252 (+15.1% month-over-month) but are still down -20.0% year-over-year.
Sales were nearly unchanged from January (+2.6%) and are down -14.9% year-over-year, which lead to a Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio of ~31.7% (80/252) — firmly in Buyer Market territory, as far more homes hit the market than sold.Active Listings increased +12.2% from January, but are down -13.9% year-over-year, so while inventory is building into spring, it’s still meaningfully lower than last year at the same time.
Interested in the Pros and Cons of Living in Milton?
|
Value |
Month-over Month |
Year-Over-Year |
|
|
New Listings |
506 |
+0.4 % |
-15.2 % |
|
Sales |
156 |
+47.2 % |
+5.4 % |
|
Active Listings |
915 |
+11.7 % |
-8.1 % |
|
Average Price |
$1,293,635 |
-2.2 % |
-14.9 % |
Oakville remains the highest-priced of the three, with an average price of $1,293,635 — but it also shows the biggest year-over-year price drop in your data set (-14.9% YoY, and -2.2% from January).New Listings were 506, basically flat from January (+0.4%) but down -15.2% year-over-year.
Sales surged +47.2% month-over-month and are also up +5.4% year-over-year — the strongest year-over-year sales performance among the three cities. Even with that, the amount of new supply still keeps Oakville in a buyer-leaning position: the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio is ~30.8% (156/506), again Buyer Market territory.Active Listings rose +11.7% from January but are down -8.1% year-over-year, meaning more selection than last month, but less than this time last year.
If you’re curious what homes are currently available, you can view the latest homes for sale in Halton Region here.
Interest Rates
What the Bank and most headlines are communicating right now is basically: rates are “on pause” at 2.25%, with some banks suggesting rates could rise in the later half of 2026—so the public takeaway becomes “rates could stay higher for longer (and might even go up).” But when you line that messaging up against the actual pulse of the economy, it’s hard to argue the data is begging for tighter policy: real GDP fell 0.2% in Q4 2025 and GDP per capita was flat, which is not the backdrop you normally associate with demand running hot. As I mentioned above, the labour market also looks more like it’s cooling than overheating with January showing a dip in employment, an employment-rate drop, participation down, and a notable private-sector pullback.
Remember, the unemployment rate came down largely because fewer people were looking for work, not because hiring suddenly surged. Meanwhile, inflation is close enough to target and StatCan has been explicit that year-over-year comparisons are being distorted by the prior GST/HST break ahead of the election last year (which can exaggerate certain price increases). So if you “follow the data,” the more defensible stance looks like hold (or eventually ease if weakness continues or worsens)—and the main argument for hiking despite softness is the Bank’s own caveat that persistent supply shocks(tariffs, geopolitics, structural disruptions) can force tighter policy even when growth is weak.
Admittedly, I don’t understand the logic here. If supply issues persist or worsen, is that worse than having high unemployment? I might understand if job security was stable but that’s clearly not the case in every part of Canada outside of Alberta. So how does this all affect real estate? If job security is uncertain people won’t make a large investment, like buying a home. If interest rates stay elevated companies won’t borrow to reinvest and jobs won’t be created. If companies fail to innovate and lose market share, they will lay off employees or only hire less stable part-time work to avoid employment law requirements. And if there are less people employed there are less income tax dollars coming in and the burden is carried by a smaller group, resulting in higher taxes which means less revenue for employees and less disposable income for homes.
For now, we have a large wave of 2021 five-year mortgage renewals coming up over the next 6 months. We should expect a large number of new listings as owners renew from their sub-two percent mortgages. Many of these owners were “investors” who bought rental properties that didn’t cashflow 5 years ago let alone in the current rate environment. And with the elevated supply and weak demand, 2026 will end up being another negative year for real estate values in the GTA.
While not great news for boomers leaving the market and cashing out, this downward pressure does give some first time buyers a chance to enter the market that they haven’t had over the last five years.
If you’re unsure, see who actually qualifies as a first-time home buyer in Ontario.
