Halton Housing Market: March 2026 Update for Burlington, Milton, Oakville & Halton Hills
April 2026 – Halton Region
This Halton real estate market update for March 2026 starts with the broader economic picture because that still matters to what we’re seeing locally in Milton, Oakville, Burlington, and Halton Hills.
March 2026 Halton Market Update
If you’ve been reading my monthly market update emails this past year you’ll know that I often start out with broader topics that ultimately impact our local real estate market, and this month is no different.
We’ve all watched gas prices moving up again. We all feel that right away. Gas goes up now, but soon enough transportation costs go up, groceries and day-to-day life don’t feel any cheaper, and confidence takes another little hit.
But I don’t think we should pretend oil is the whole story. The economy has been really soft for a decade before the recent oil spike – and we’ve really seen how soft the economy is now that it’s no longer being masked by mass immigration.
Job numbers continued to weaken in January and in February we lost 84,000 jobs – March numbers will be released this Friday. Ontario has taken on some of the worst job losses, worse than the national averages made it seem. So yes, higher oil can add inflation pressure in the short term, but it’s landing on top of an economy that is already not in great shape.
What makes this more concerning is that Canada’s weakness did not start with this latest shock. For years, the deeper issue has been poor productivity and weak business investment — in other words, we have not been building enough productive capacity to support stronger wage growth, higher output, and a more resilient private sector. The Bank of Canada has said this investment problem has been building for a long time and has become worse over roughly the past decade. That helps explain why the economy has looked so fragile: once the temporary support from rapid population growth started to fade, the softness underneath became much harder to hide.
What does this have to do with real estate?
People buy when they feel secure in their jobs, when the monthly numbers make sense, and when they feel reasonably confident about what comes next. Right now, that confidence still looks shaky in Ontario.
While Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February, with weakness mainly in full-time and private-sector work, Ontario was flat on the surface but lost 26,000 full-time jobs and unemployment moved up to 7.6% as more people started looking for work again. So, the weakness is being felt month after month and it showed up in March.
So, with that in mind, let’s get into what actually happened in Halton in March.
Halton Region
| Value | MoM % | YoY % |
New Listings | 1,602 | 35.4% | -17.1% |
Sales | 554 | 34.5% | -0.7% |
Active Listings | 2,413 | 12.5% | -11.0% |
Average Price | $1,134,155 | -0.6% | -6.7% |
SNLR | 34.6% | ||
MOI | 4.44 |
Sales did improve from February, which is normal as we move toward spring. But listings came up just as fast, and active inventory kept rising.
That’s really the story of the last year as the wave of 2020-2021 buyers hit their 5 year renewals.
Is supply getting absorbed? Not well enough. Halton’s Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio came in at 34.6%, which is still buyer-market territory. So even though the market is active with many buyers out looking and testing the market, supply is still coming on faster than demand is taking it out.
Halton average prices were basically flat, edging down slightly from February, but still down 6.7% from a year ago. So spring activity has picked up with an increase of 56% more sales, yes, but it hasn’t created broad pricing strength across the region as new listings kept pace with sales, resulting in active inventory jumping over 10%.
Burlington Real Estate
Halton Hills Real Estate
|
|
Value |
MoM % |
YoY % |
|
New Listings |
486 |
46.8% |
-7.8% |
|
Sales |
207 |
56.8% |
3.0% |
|
Active Listings |
714 |
10.7% |
-4.3% |
|
Average Price |
$1,077,174 |
-1.0% |
-8.2% |
|
SNLR |
42.6% |
||
|
MOI |
3.50 |
Burlington real estate was probably the strongest of the four this month when you look at demand versus new supply. Sales had a good jump and the SNLR moved above 40%, which puts it closer to a balanced market than the rest of Halton.
That said, I still wouldn’t call this a hot market.
Active listings rose again, prices slipped 1% from February and are down more than 8% from last year, and homes are still taking much longer to sell than they were a year ago. So Burlington looked better, but not strong.
|
|
Value |
MoM % |
YoY % |
|
New Listings |
132 |
43.5% |
-13.2% |
|
Sales |
55 |
66.7% |
34.1% |
|
Active Listings |
172 |
4.2% |
-18.5% |
|
Average Price |
$874,147 |
-11.8% |
-17.3% |
|
SNLR |
41.7% |
||
|
MOI |
3.25 |
Halton Hills real estate had a much better month for sales and, on paper, also moved closer to balanced conditions with an SNLR of 41.7%.
But Halton Hills is smaller, so the numbers can swing around more from month to month. I’d be careful about getting too excited over one month here.
Yes, March was better than February. But average price also fell pretty hard both month-over-month and year-over-year, which tells you demand still isn’t coming back with much pricing power. Better month? Maybe? Sales outpaced new listings, but it’s hard to say it was better when the average price fell by nearly 12%.
Milton Real Estate
|
|
Value |
MoM % |
YoY % |
|
New Listings |
329 |
30.6% |
-21.9% |
|
Sales |
97 |
14.1% |
-23.6% |
|
Active Listings |
475 |
16.4% |
-8.3% |
|
Average Price |
$920,495 |
-7.9% |
-8.4% |
|
SNLR |
29.5% |
||
|
MOI |
4.95 |
Milton is still clearly soft in March.
Sales were up a bit from February, but not by nearly enough to keep pace with listings. The SNLR dropped to 29.5%, which is firmly in buyer’s-market territory, and months of inventory is now pushing close to 5 months.
That’s just not a market absorbing supply very well.
Prices were down nearly 8% from February and down 8.4% from last March. Active listings also jumped more than 16% month-over-month. So if you’re looking for the clearest example in Halton of supply outpacing demand, Milton is still it.
Oakville Real Estate
|
|
Value |
MoM % |
YoY % |
|
New Listings |
655 |
28.9% |
-21.4% |
|
Sales |
195 |
20.4% |
3.2% |
|
Active Listings |
1,052 |
13.5% |
-14.8% |
|
Average Price |
$1,374,261 |
6.7% |
-4.4% |
|
SNLR |
29.8% |
||
|
MOI |
5.54 |
Oakville had more sales in March and was the only municipality whose average price moved higher month-over-month, but the broader picture is still soft.
The reason is pretty simple: new supply still came on faster than demand could absorb it. Oakville’s SNLR was 29.8% and months of inventory moved above 5.5 months. By any reasonable reading, that’s still a buyer-leaning market.
And in Oakville especially, I’d be careful with the average price number in any single month. The mix of what sold can move that around quite a bit. The more important part is that inventory kept rising and supply still wasn’t being absorbed well enough.
So yes, some decent activity. But buyers still have leverage here, and sellers still need to be realistic.
Interest Rates: What Matters Now
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% in March, which was expected.
The bigger question is what happens next.
The economy is soft enough that you can make the case for patience, and maybe lower rates later on. But higher oil prices muddy that picture because they can push inflation around in the short term. That doesn’t mean rates are suddenly heading back up. It just means the Bank has less room to sound comfortable if inflation gets pushed around by energy again.
And while I’m no economist (I’m right far too often for that profession) I would argue that inflation from oil prices (the reason of the week) is not that same as excess demand and a super-hot economy that needs to be controlled. I would argue that the economy is weak which pushes down our dollar’s value and our domestic production is maybe even worse, resulting in the need to import more, which costs more due to a weak Canadian dollar. Lower rates, create a positive atmosphere for businesses and jobs will be created and our dollar will rise too. But the Bank of Canada can only deal with the cards they’ve been dealt.
For real estate, I still think a lot of people put too much weight on the Bank of Canada headline alone. Rates matter, of course. But buyers mostly respond to:
– whether they feel secure in their jobs
– whether payments feel manageable
– whether fixed mortgage rates improve enough to matter
– whether they believe prices are stable enough to step in
And right now, I’d say the rate backdrop is okay-ish. The confidence backdrop is weaker.
That’s a big reason sales volume is still soft in much of the country and in parts of Halton even though rates are no longer where they were at the peak.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
If you’re a buyer, this is still a market where patience helps. In most of Halton — especially Milton and Oakville — you’ve got more leverage than sellers do. That doesn’t mean every listing is a great deal. It just means you can slow down, compare options, and make decisions a little more carefully.
If you’re a seller, this is not the kind of market where you can just test the ceiling and hope spring bails you out. You’re up against a wave of 2021 5-year-fixed renewals, and even some 2023 3-years-fixed renewals. The homes that sell are the ones priced properly from the start and presented well. The ones that sit are usually the ones still chasing an older price expectation the current market isn’t supporting.
If you’re buying and selling at the same time, softer conditions can actually reduce some of the chaos. But your sale still has to be grounded in reality. You can’t assume spring demand is strong enough to absorb any number you put on the home, because the March data just doesn’t support that in most of Halton. Every situation is different but, in general, I’d recommending selling before buying this spring.
That’s probably the clearest takeaway this month: the market is active, but supply still isn’t being absorbed well enough to create broad upward pressure on prices.
Burlington and Halton Hills looked a bit closer to balanced in March. Halton overall didn’t. Milton clearly didn’t.
As always, if you want to talk through your specific situation — buying, selling, or trying to line both up at the same time — just book a no obligation call with us.
