Halton Region Market Update: 2025
If you’re confused about the real estate market with all the mixed messages out there, you’re not alone.
Some industry “experts” were calling for the market to “take off at any moment,” even projecting 6% price growth. Instead, we got a 6% decline.
At the other extreme, YouTubers with dramatic thumbnails warned about “the worst crash ever.” The truth usually sits somewhere in the middle.
I prefer to check the data, keep it simple, and share what it really says.
I usually don’t attempt to predict the future, but today I will try to give clues about where the market may be heading based on what we see in today’s data and how similar situations played out in the past.
One thing I’d like to note early on is condos. I don’t specifically get into condos here but the condo market is a mess and will be for years and years to come. Think 5+ years at least.
There are very few exceptions to this but if you look at how many condos are available, how many are still coming and what they were building, it’s mostly units no one wants.
The result of greedy builders exploiting an unsustainable level of demand and trying to squeeze every penny out of a development. Result – smaller units so they can sell more of them.
In 1991 the average unit size was 1,100 square feet. It’s now around 700 square feet.
Further, there’s nothing unique about them so when selling, your only advantage will be price.
If you are considering a condo, don’t go in thinking “we’re near the bottom, they’ve gotta go up from here” and that you’ll make money in a couple years. I just don’t see it happening.
Not when each tower takes 4-6 years to build, including permitting phase.
So, with that said, let’s look at what Halton real estate did in September 2025.
New Listings:
New Listings is the largest headwind to price growth over the past few years. In September, Halton Region saw a 19% increase in new listings year-over-year. The largest increase for new listings came from Burlington, followed very closely by Halton Hills. Milton and Oakville also had similar levels of new listings, though half the growth of Burlington and Halton Hills.
- Burlington: +29%
· Halton Hills: +28%
· Milton: +14%
· Oakville: +13%
Sales
Sales increased as well in September with a 9% increase year-over-year for Halton Region. This is what we want to see in order for prices to stabilize.
Breaking it down by each city, Burlington led the way in sales by a large margin, followed by Halton Hills and Oakville. Milton had the smallest gain in sales year over year, but the boost in sales means a return of confidence to some buyers. While the increase in sales is promising and likely fueled by the recently interest rate reduction, it wasn’t strong enough to offset the number of new listings.
- Burlington: +16%
· Halton Hills: +7%
· Oakville: +6%
· Milton: +4%
Active Listings:
Active listings are made up of what’s left over from the previous month, plus new listings, minus sales and cancellations.
Halton saw 24% more active listings than last year. Milton led the way in active listings, with a large jump specifically in the townhouse segment. Burlington, Halton Hills and Oakville all showed similar increases of active listings. Since the number of sales were less than the number of new listings added, active listings increased year over year.
- Milton: +31% (townhouse listings up nearly 50%)
· Burlington: +22%
· Halton Hills: +22%
· Oakville: +23%
Months of Inventory (MOI)
(MOI) is a measurement to determine the number of sales compared to active listings.
Halton Region saw an increase from 3.0 MOI in September 2024 to 4.2 MOI last month, showing the gap between the number of sales and the number of active listings is widening. This results in more choices and negotiating power for buyers.
Oakville saw the largest jump with Milton and Burlington having similar increases. Halton Hills had the lowest move, potentially showing an elevated level of interest for the area.
- Oakville: 3.6 → 5.3
· Milton: 2.5 → 3.7
· Burlington: 2.6 → 3.6
· Halton Hills: 2.9 → 3.6
Days On Market (DOM)
DOM tracks how long a home is on the market before being removed – whether it sold or was canceled. DOM doesn’t always tell the full story because a cancelled listing shows up the same way as a sold listing in the data.
In 2025 we’ve seen many homes taken off the market without selling, because the owners either want to wait for a better time or to change their price. This suggests sellers aren’t panicking — they’re comfortable holding and not willing to sell at any price. There is underlying strength to the market despite the headwinds we’ve faced the last few years.
- Halton Region: 30 → 36 days
· Halton Hills: 25 → 37
· Oakville: 29 → 37
· Milton: 28 → 33
· Burlington: 34 → 37
Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada lowered rates by 0.25% in September, the first cut since March 2025. Many people expected rate cuts earlier, but the BoC waited until September to act, moving in step with the U.S.
The main reason is that the economy shrank by 1.6%, the biggest drop since Covid. Job losses and unemployment are also adding pressure, which shows the economy is struggling. Some economists point to the tariffs being the main reason. While others suggest a failure in government policy. Again, perhaps the truth is somewhere in between.
Prices
All of these factors — new listings, sales, DOM, MOI, and rates — feed into prices. For the past two years, more homes have come to market than have sold, which usually drives prices lower. September was no different: sales rose, but so did new listings, active supply, DOM, and MOI.
The result was a 5.8% year-over-year drop in average prices across Halton, bringing the average to $1,185,878.
- Halton Hills: +24% – ($1,216,225)
· Milton: +1.4% – ($1,036,162)
· Burlington: –9% – ($1,063,970)
· Oakville: –13% – ($1,399,948)
What does this all mean to you?
Well, that depends if you’re a first-time buyer or looking to get back in, upsizer, downsizer, investor or looking to cash out.
Nobody has a crystal ball, even though some act as if they do. But when we back test similar economic situations and house hold debt to what we’re seeing today, the closest comparison is the 90’s.
That was a six-year correction cycle.
The 90’s had high inflation that was tamed by higher interest rates, low economic growth, job losses, high unemployment and high debt levels – all things we’re experiencing now in our current cycle. Not identical, but very similar.
If we assume things don’t get much worse from here, and if unemployment stays under 8% (currently 7.1%), we might melt down another 3-6% over the next year.
Interest rates are coming down and sales are up which are good. But new listings are still higher than sales, active listings are still high, employment is faltering, unemployment is rising and we still have another year of mortgage renewals from rock bottom rates. That is, the 5-year mortgages form 2021 will renew in 2026 which could lead to more homes being listed.
The Real (after adjusting for inflation) decline the 90’s was about 39% over 6 years.
Since the peak in 2022, real estate has produced a Real decline of 29% so far after 3.5 years. The differences between the 90’s and today is unemployment was as high as 11.2% in ‘92 and ’93. Today it’s under 8% so far in this market. So not as bad.
After the correction in the 90’s the market increased 4% per year for 96’ and 97’. Meaning if we follow a similar pattern, and things don’t get much worse, we might be back at today’s prices in two years or so. Meaning one more year of decline, then a year or so to come back up.
Again, just a hint of a direction, not a prediction. No crystal ball here.
So, if you’re a buyer, sometime over the next year might be a good time to get in. Trying to time the market or bidding on a house that everyone else wants might mean you pay more than you could or should. You have time and options so buy what’s right for you, when it’s right for you.
If you’re an upsizer, the message is the same. The larger homes are harder to afford (less competition) and the gap between towns or semi’s and detached are relatively narrow. Make sure your agent is following the market closely and guides you on the realities of the market, and not wishful thinking or “buying the listing” as we call it. – promising a price higher than realistic to secure your business.
Those of you who are downsizers, or cashing out, have some thinking to do. Do you take what you can get now and move on, potentially use the strength of the stock market (not financial advice) to make up the difference? Or ride it out for a few more years in hopes of a decent recovery? Only you know the answer.
Investors should stay clear of the local real estate market for the next few years in my opinion. There are better returns with less risk in other vehicles or markets.